Notes From My First Night In Des Moines, Iowa, the Swing State

by Lanny Davis – 2/2/20

Feb. 1, Des Moines, Iowa – I spent my first evening in Iowa, Saturday night, three days before Monday night’s caucuses, in a great Des Moines Italian restaurant, Baratta’s, with a group of 15-20 Democrats. The group ranged from current and former state and local elected officials, to local Democratic activists, to regular interested Democrats.

The gathering was hosted by former state Attorney General Bonnie Campbell, a long-time Democratic state leader and friend since we first met during Ted Kennedy’s 1980 campaign.

Here are some random snippets of conversation during the evening:

I started by asking why Iowa went for Obama in 2012 by 6 percent and then for Trump by 9 percent in 2016. That is more than 200,000 voters (not all the same) who found a reason to vote for both. So, I started out with the question: Why? I asked.

The answer was best summarized by one person, an expert political strategist:

“I asked a group of these voters to write down the word or phrase they thought of when I said the name Trump. They wrote: ‘wall,’ ‘immigration,’ ‘foreign jobs – NAFTA.’” When he said the name “Clinton,” most, he said couldn’t write anything at all, although a few wrote “health care,” and some wrote: “hates Trump.”

The lesson was obvious: A clear message about issues people care about is far more important than a fuzzy message or one just attacking the opponent.

• In the Democratic race, I was not surprised that most thought Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and former Vice President Joe Biden would come out ahead, with most guessing Sanders.

Those most concerned about beating Trump were for Biden. But some reminded me that Bernie had appeal to Trump voters, evidenced by the fact that he consistently shows strength against Trump in general election polling.

When I asked why Trump voters also liked Bernie, the answer was almost always the same: Sanders denounces the current political establishment, just like Trump. When I asked whether Bernie labeling himself as a “socialist” would hurt him among swing voters, most said yes – but many said, “that is already baked in – just as Trump being a personal jerk is baked in. They still like Bernie saying it’s time to overturn the system, which is not working for working class people.”

• The notion that Democrats have “abandoned” rural and working-class voters, such as those who live Iowa’s (and other) rural areas in middle America, was common.

One person, whose family came from rural farming areas of northwestern Iowa and southwestern Minnesota, recalled a “cousin’s club” reunion. All of her cousins – everyone – said they had voted for Trump in 2016. Why? “Democrats don’t care about us. They look down on us. They have forgotten us.”

And Trump? I asked. Do your cousins truly think Trump takes them – or anything he promises – seriously?

“Well, they don’t like Trump and don’t necessarily believe him, but at least his words convey that he cares about what they care about. Democrats seem to care only about being politically correct.” Or as one of her cousins put it: “We don’t like being told that you have to use the word ‘it’ rather than her or him to be politically correct.”

• On impeachment: Not one person mentioned it. Not one. What? I questioned myself, as someone immersed in the issue. Yes. not one.
• Finally, can a Democrat beat Trump in Iowa 2020 and if so, how to do it?

Here there was overwhelming consensus – economic populism must be the 2020 Democratic Party message, they said – harsh words about billionaires paying no or little taxes, rigging the system against working class families. Here is a sample of comments around the table:

“Talk about Trump’s policies, especially tax cuts, favoring the rich over the rest of us.”

“Talk about billionaires and big corporations pocketing zillions from the tax cuts while working class people got little or nothing.”

“Talk about Trump expanding the deficit by trillions of dollars while working class people and their kids are left paying the tab.”

Is there a single candidate these messages today most sound like?

You know who that is.

The only ads I saw on TV in my hotel room (more than a dozen in less than two hours) while writing this piece, repeating these messages again and again, were from Sanders.

All the other ads from other candidates emphasized directly or indirectly about how “risky” a vote for Sanders would be if you want to beat Trump.

Whoever runs against Trump in the fall, that populist message is the best way to take on Trump – not by running ads about how terrible he is. And this comment by one Iowan should be remembered by the Democratic Party nominee:

“Don’t fly over us when you are campaigning on your way to California. Come and talk to us about what we care about.”

To read the column on The Hill, click here

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Davis served as special counsel to President Bill Clinton (1996-98). He is co-founder of the law firm of Davis Goldberg & Galper and the strategic media and crisis management firm Trident DMG. He authored “Crisis Tales: Five Rules for Coping with Crises in Business, Politics and Life (Scribner 2018). He is being hosted in Iowa by former Iowa Attorney General Bonnie Campbell. Davis can be followed on Twitter @LannyDavis